Talent is both innate and something that emerges over time, such that both nature and nurture play important roles. There are also various different facets of talent, encompassing physical, physiological, cognitive, and psychosocial components. Aside from choosing your parents well, formative experiences and elements of character interact in how these capabilities emerge. And of course in the context of the sport, talent is expressed in terms of technical skills and tactical acumen - above all, can they play? Sporting organisations accordingly seek to identify those who show potential to perform on the highest stage. In turn, the purpose of talent development pathways are to foster relevant qualities and enable individuals to actualise the potential that was identified. All of this seems straightforward in theory; in practice, the picture is a little different.
When it comes to operationalising talent development, Olympic sports in different parts of the world generally favour a centralised model and professional sport academies likewise typically have a centre of excellence as the hub for supporting identified performers. From a logistical standpoint this all makes sense, as it allows staff, services, facilities and resources to be brought together at one site. The standard approach of concentrating talent development efforts in one place and restricting support to identified athletes does however assume we have the capability to select those young performers who have the highest potential to succeed. Sadly, this assumption is pretty unsound. The reality is that talent ID and selection are notoriously inexact and there are a host of factors that confound our efforts in these areas.
PREDICTING FUTURE SUCCESS FROM EARLY PERFORMANCES…
Forecasting future performance based on young performers’ competitive performances to date is fraught with uncertainty. Youth performers (males in particular) are in a state of flux during their adolescent years. Their hardware is still developing so they are constantly having to recalibrate to their changing tools even as they continue to acquire technical and tactical skills. Given this, it should not be a surprise that even in ‘simple’ sports competition performances do not stabilise until the later teenage years - particularly in males.
Even in sports that measure performance in grams, centimetres and seconds, athletes’ performances at junior level do not show a strong relationship with how individuals perform once they reach senior level. In other words, early success in junior competition has little bearing on later success and is certainly not a prerequisite for ultimately ‘making it’. This finding is replicated across a range of individual and team sports. All of which presents a problem if we are relying on identifying talent and selecting athletes onto development pathways based on competitive performance in junior competition.
Another reality is that in many sports athletes will not reach their peak until much later on. The best illustration is sports with a large strength component, such as weightlifting, throwing events or certain playing positions in contact sports - peak performance may not be reached until the athlete is in their 30s. A similar trend is seen with endurance events of longer distance. In more complex sports requiring game sense and decision-making, the technical and tactical skills of the individual similarly continue to develop throughout their career at senior level (assuming they make it that far). The performance and minutes played by more senior players typically remain high even as their physical performance wanes.
So we have a problem. On the one hand we are very poor at forecasting what is going to happen, plus the accuracy of our predictions steeply decline the further into the future we go. On the other hand, what we are seeking to predict may be many years away. Better performers tend to reach their peak later relative to their peers. And depending on the sport, the age at peak performance might be a decade or more in the future.
SELECTING BY PHYSICAL AND ATHLETIC PERFORMANCE METRICS..?
Another common basis for talent identification and selection involves evaluating physical attributes and physiological capacities. The rationale for selection based on who has the raw materials to compete on the highest stage appears sound on the surface as elite athletes tend to be at the extremes of the population - the height and wingspan of players in the NBA are certainly beyond the norms for the general population, for instance. But whilst it may be possible to largely rule out those who will not make the grade based on physical attributes, physical metrics and performance tests prove even less able to differentiate those who ultimately succeed in the sport than early competition performances. It would stand to reason that if performance in the sport itself is not a strong guide then any proxy measure would be even less reliable. This is especially the case with late-maturing athletes.
As with competition performances, it is very difficult to separate and account for the role of biological age and stage of maturation when evaluating the physical attributes and physiological capacities of young performers. The reality is that each individual is at a different point on their trajectory, so much like competition performance it is very difficult to make comparisons between individuals until a later stage when these growth and maturation curves converge. Again late-maturing males pose a challenge from this perspective - they might still be growing and developing as they reach their 20s!
The task of identifying pure athletic ability is a relatively more straightforward endeavour in young female performers. Not only do they reach puberty earlier, the effects of puberty are less dramatic when it comes to stature and physical capacities (they do not experience the neuromuscular spurt that brings young males free gains in lean mass, strength and speed). Maturation-related changes also span a shorter period of time. In fact, female performers would benefit from support (particularly physical development) from a much earlier age relative to males.
Of course athletic ability in itself is no guarantee of future success even in track and field athletics. So whilst we might be able to rule out performers based on physical attributes and performance metrics once they reach late adolescence, these parameters alone are not particularly useful when it comes to differentiating those who remain. This is even more so the case in sports that are less dependent upon physical attributes, athletic ability and physiological capacities.
SCOUTING TALENT…
Given the complexity of talent and the elements that are hard to quantify or capture objectively, it follows we must continue to rely on the subjective evaluation of an experienced coach. A coach’s eye for talent can be extraordinary. I recall earlier in my career being dismissive of a young squash player based on his physical condition and athleticism, but the head coach insisted that he saw something special on the court - and of course he was proved correct (the player in question is currently ranked top 20 in the world).
Equally, our subjective perceptions are prone to cognitive bias. In particular, coaches’ evaluations of young performers are heavily biased by maturation status - especially with males. Scouting reports based on performance in competition often simply reflect the biological age and stage of maturation of the young performer. Early maturing athletes are favoured in junior competition. Another illustration is that something as arbitrary as where their birth date falls in the year similarly continues to have an influence on selection (those born at the start of the eligibility period are much more likely to be selected than those born towards the end).
Without calibrating our subjective evaluations, there is a high probability that we may overlook potential based how they currently present as a junior. The size of the dog in the fight is not a good metric until all members of the peer group reach full maturation. Coaches’ evaluations should therefore be based primarily on technical and tactical aspects, which admittedly can be difficult to separate from physical traits under competition conditions.
It is notoriously difficult to establish which performers will ultimately emerge and even the most comprehensive talent development systems typically only capture a proportion of them. To give an example, a study of the world renowned Australian Swimming high performance system demonstrated that only 50-74% of swimmers who went on to qualify for the Olympics in a given cycle were part of national programme squads, despite the relatively large size of these squads (up to 90 swimmers during the period studied).
CASTING A WIDE NET AND KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN…
Clearly we should not be too confident in our ability to predict those who have the potential to ultimately succeed. When we examine the trajectories of those performers who ultimately make it we find they vary widely - there are many roads to Rome when it comes to the journey to elite-level. Those performers who reach maturity later often also demonstrate greater technical and tactical development out of necessity in order to find a way to compete with their more physically mature peers in age-group competition. Clearly we need to keep the door open and provide a path for these performers.
On that basis, if we are to employ a funnel for selection onto talent development pathways it should not taper too dramatically with age - essentially we should be seeking to keep as many performers who show potential in play for as long possible. Resources are of course finite but it is still possible to cater for a larger pool of athletes if we adopt a two-tier system of probables and possibles (again, this is something we did during my tenure with the national squash set up in Scotland).
Conversely, it is important to recognise that identifying a young performer as a ‘talent’ and selecting them onto talent development pathways early on can also have paradoxical adverse effects that ultimately hinder their progress. Some data from the German sport systems suggest that those selected onto talent development pathways earlier may subsequently drop out sooner. This raises the spectre that whilst we might correctly identify potential early on, there is nevertheless the possibility we could impede their development by giving young performers status and special attention, particularly during sensitive times such as early adolescence.
For some the mantle can hang heavy: being labelled as talented can make developing performers conservative and averse to being seen to fail. For others, the extrinsic rewards of attention and status perhaps combined with a misapprehension that they have already made it serve to change their motivation in ways that are equally harmful to the ultimate mission. Clearly the messaging needs to be carefully managed. In the national squash development pathway I was involved with in Scotland we made it very clear that we were not unduly fussed about players winning junior tournaments - it was explicit that all of our efforts were invested towards enabling them to win for their country once they reached senior level. Importantly, we meant what we said and our actions reflected it.
There are a host of other confounding factors that make it difficult to predict how an individual will develop. And as we have noted, the actions of sporting organisations and coaches have the potential to compound this.
CHARACTER TRAITS AND PSYCHOSOCIAL FACTORS…
Returning to the overarching objective we opened with, our task is to try to find and develop those with the attributes and capabilities to perform on the highest stage. Beyond the more obvious and visible gifts they are blessed with, the ability to perform in the crucible of competition depends on something deeper within the individual. The propensity to cope with athlete life at elite level is also a major factor that will determine whether they are able to sustain this over time.
Traits like grit and resilience in particular are increasingly identified as critical factors for developing young performers, both of which relate to the intra-personal element of character. Grit is defined as the propensity to pursue long-term goals with zeal and continued investment of hard work, whereas resilience is the ability to bounce back and respond positively to setbacks. It is clear how each of these elements might prove crucial on the long journey to elite level, as well as being major assets once performers reach that point.
Character traits in general are very difficult to evaluate at the outset; rather they will become evident over time as performers are faced with different challenges and scenarios. Experiencing difficulty will naturally test the mettle of the individual - as such it is at these times that character tends to be revealed. It also stands to reason that we will not be in a position to judge how an individual responds to setbacks until they encounter them.
To some degree these attributes are also malleable. By definition young people are work in progress and both their personalities and how they view the world are still evolving.
Returning to the idea of intra-personal elements of character, one of the most crucial aspects is how performers manage themselves. Often there is no lack of desire - many performers desperately want to succeed. For these individuals especially the bigger challenge becomes managing and directing these energies so that the fire does not consume them. To highlight the importance of this from a talent development perspective, there are some data to indicate that how young performers cope with stressors on the pathway helps to predict future success in their athletic career at senior level. Of all the elements of talent development, helping performers to manage themselves is perhaps the biggest area we can assist by providing them with the necessary awareness and tools.
Similarly, interpersonal elements of character and social intelligence are critical. Beyond how individuals conduct themselves, their ability to cooperate and communicate successfully are important elements to observe. Clearly this is especially key in team sports but even with individual sports it takes a village to succeed. Successfully cultivating and maintaining a social support network is crucial in helping the performer to cope with stressors.
Conversely, given the integral role of parents in supporting the performers participation this should necessarily be part of the equation when evaluating the future potential of young performers. Parents can be the biggest asset for the performer during the talent process but they can also be a liability. How parents conduct themselves naturally has a major impact on young performers, especially during the early adolescent years. Whilst parents provide critical support there is equally the potential that their actions might inadvertently sabotage the mission. Clearly every effort should be made to enlist parents as a partner in the process and provide them with the insights and awareness to ensure that everybody’s actions are aligned and serve the performer’s ongoing development.
CLOSING THOUGHTS…
Given the inherent uncertainty involved we should alter our approach so that the process is less reliant upon talent identification and selection as it exists currently. We can and should of course take steps to mitigate the more glaring sources of error (such as including assessments of maturation to calibrate evaluations). What happens once performers are on the talent development pathway is however generally more revealing. Given that potential tends to emerge over time, the process of unearthing future performers should be viewed as an ongoing endeavour under the watchful gaze of experienced coaches rather than a one-off selection process.
We should also reconsider the convention of focussing resources and efforts on a restricted pool of athletes at a central hub. Whilst it might be most straightforward and appealing from an administrative point of view, it seems highly questionable whether this approach is entirely fit for our purpose (i.e. finding and supporting those with potential to perform at the highest level).
One alternative strategy to the centralised model is to improve the level of expertise and support across the wider network in order to increase the number and improve the level of performers across the board. In part, this takes advantage of a strategy described as the large n approach, whereby simply increasing the number of participants in itself serves to improve competitive performance in a given region.
But an additional prong to the strategy is to improve the level of coaching provision at a regional level in order to shift the whole population in the right direction along the performance curve (faster, higher, further, etc.). In other words, instead of seeking to raise the level for a restricted group to the exclusion of others we seek to increase both participation and performance for the wider population of performers, which ultimately yields a greater number of high performers at the elite end of the curve.
Practically, to do this successfully means investing in coaches and infrastructure across the region. Such an approach would also allow us to leverage network effects; assuming all parties are aligned, we can pool resources and extend our reach. Rather than focussing our efforts and investment at the hub, we should perhaps pay more attention to the spokes of the wheel!
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